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Coronavirus COVID19 Overview and Tracking

This is a collection of COVID19 Coronavirus notes from the last 5 weeks. This includes: tracking tools, defining the virus vs disease, facts, staying healthy, where virus came from, and Wuhan timeline. Warning, included is leaked content at very bottom. This should answer many questions you may have.

Index:

Note: Appears to spread at R naught 2 to 2.5 with cycles of 4 to 5. Most of my math I am using R naught of 2 with cycles of 4 which seems to be general close high level estimate. For USA I started on Jan 15 with 10 seeds.

High level impact & prediction: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Defining the virus & Spread

Virus: sars-cov-2

Disease: Covid19

“severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” as the name of the new virus on 11 February 2020. This name was chosen because the virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003

Similar to how HIV virus causes AIDS disease. “People often know the name of a disease, such as measles, but not the name of the virus that causes it (rubeola).”

3.2% need vent and 50–86% of those pass away.

“The scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.”

Researchers found that the new coronavirus enters human lung cells using a receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). There is ACE2 in many places like heart, pancreas, kidneys, and throat. Incubation starts in the throat. Some people may not have any symptoms but are shedding.

ACE2 Receptor

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public: Myth busters

Reports are claiming that only at risk, but we are seeing healthy people getting and suffering. You’ve likely heard that older adults and those with underlying health conditions are more at risk for severe illness from COVID-19. People with underlying health conditions are counting on all of us to help protect their health. If you or someone you know has any of the following medical conditions, they may be at increased risk, no matter their age:

Flatten the curve by social distancing, staying clean, and avoiding catching any virus at this time. Goal is to reduce deaths and overload to hospitals.

Mental psychology is a big factor. Avoid mass shopping and gatherings. We need to be honest and truthful with each other. We can not finger point and reduce people. We need to come together and have open conversation. With platforms like facebook and social we are in a good place. Mental health is important so call each other and support each other. Isolation is not easy.

Have a social Contract and how you will handle these situations. This contract is to look after one another. It’s important to have a conversation with each other. https://medium.com/@saltman80/social-contract-tool-for-the-coronavirus-covid19-c43f62335f85

This should include:

Most important, call ahead to the doctor or hospital and ask what to do.

“urged followers to take acetaminophen, noting that use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatories such as ibuprofen could actually worsen the illness caused by the new coronavirus.”

Is it a weapon? => No, appears not.

“It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus.”

This comes from horseshoe bats in Yunnan 96% confidence in RNA and genetic sequencing.

High level zoonotic review of spillover event. Looks like Bats to Human.

SARS comes from bats — What happens is that when animals are stressed the virus escapes from their bodies due to low immune suppression. This is caused by human interaction, destroying the environment, etc.

China bands wildlife selling in markets Mid Feb as a result. Can see in below link images of bats being sold

Why don’t bats get sick with the virus? The virus can also handle much higher temps like 42c (114f) so it means that our immune system can not kill the virus with body heat like some virus.

Bat was find in 2017 and took 5 years to track down after 2002 SARS. Its lucky that this team spent so many years tracking this down or we may not know the animal.

Who is to blame? Clearly it is humans causing stress in these animals that cause the virus to jump species

Where did this start?

About when did this emerge?

Likely mid Nov to early Dec.

Estimating Spread

Mathematical Modeling

Warning: some of this is graphic.

Black rain =>

Mass Hospital being built

“Can house 1000 beds” <= propaganda. Appears to be 100,000+ person looking at vid and open floor plans.

Forcing people into Quarantine

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